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Golden Globes 2014: how do they affect our Oscar predictions?

Posted at 1:05 pm, January 13, 2014 in Arts & Entertainment

  Tina Fey and Amy Poehlerat the Golden Globes

In three days’ time, we’ll discover who’s been nominated for an Oscar in 2014. But last night Hollywood enjoyed the annual warm-up gig: the Golden Globes. So, what can we learn about the Oscars from yesterday’s Golden Globe winners? 

’12 Years a Slave’ won Best Drama, while ‘American Hustle’ won Best Comedy or Musical, so it’s fair to assume that both films continue to be serious Oscar contenders, especially as Jennifer Lawrence and Amy Adams also won prizes for their roles in ‘American Hustle’. But look more closely, and you’ll also see that Alfonso Cuarón won Best Director for ‘Gravity’, Matthew McConaughey won Best Actor in a drama for ‘Dallas Buyers Club’, Cate Blanchett won Best Actress in a drama for ‘Blue Jasmine’ and the screenplay award went to Spike Jonze’s ‘Her’. The love could hardly have been spread more thinly.

Any talk of an overwhelming consensus ahead of the Oscars is premature, and there are still several films in play for the big awards. Here at Time Out, if we were to guess who might win the major awards at the Oscars on March 2, we still think that ’12 Years a Slave’ has the best chance of winning the Best Picture and Best Director awards, while Cate Blanchett must be the favourite for the Best Actress prize. The race for Best Actor is looking tight: both Chiwetel Ejiofor for ’12 Years a Slave’ and Matthew McConaughey for ‘Dallas Buyers Club’ must be considered favourites, while it seems reckless to ignore Leonardo DiCaprio (who won the Best Actor prize for a comedy or musical at the Golden Globes for ‘The Wolf of Wall Street’). Also, let’s not forget ‘Gravity’. Could this space drama cause an upset in one of the top categories, maybe by winning the Best Director prize, leaving only Best Picture for ’12 Years a Slave’?

Awards-predicting is fun, of course, and anything that gets people excited about great films can’t be knocked. But as a footnote it’s worth remembering that the Golden Globes are voted for by a maximum of 93 foreign journalists working in Los Angeles – which means that about 25 votes might secure you a win. That’s it. Compare that to the almost 6,000 members of the Academy who vote for the Oscars, and you begin to realise that any predictions based on who won what at the Golden Globes must be taken with a healthy pinch of salt.

See our full Oscars coverage at timeout.com/oscars

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